Supply and Demand

Make Smarter SDA Investment Decisions with Data-Driven Insights

When it comes to investing in NDIS property, understanding the national landscape of Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA) supply and demand is essential. At NDIS Property Australia, we specialise in identifying areas across the country where high demand meets limited supply—creating ideal conditions for successful SDA investment.

Our expert team collates and analyses up-to-date data from the NDIS, including current enrolments and pipeline developments, to uncover real opportunities often overlooked by others. We’ve compiled these insights into a comprehensive Supply & Demand Report to help you confidently pinpoint high-demand, undersupplied locations—giving you the information you need to build the right SDA in the right place.

Estimated SDA Supply Australia-wide

As of 30th September 2023

Estimated SDA Demand Australia-wide

As of 30th September 2023

State-wise SDA Supply and Demand Statistics

We have compiled detailed supply and demand statistics for each state based on the recently released NDIS SDA data as of 31st March 2025.

SDA Demand Projections

As part of their commitment to the SDA Sector, the NDIA released demand projections as part of the SDA Pricing Review 2022-2023.

This report was released to the public in September 2023.

Listen to our Podcast episode discussing the Demand Projections Report here…

How is the Demand and Supply status of SDA?

The demand and supply status of Specialist Disability Accommodation (SDA) within the NDIS in Australia as of early 2025 is characterized by a dynamic and evolving market with both growth and emerging challenges:

Demand Status

• The number of NDIS participants accessing SDA funding has slightly increased recently, with active participants with SDA supports reaching over 23,000 by late 2023 and continuing to grow at about 15% annually over the past few years.

• The NDIA projects SDA demand to grow from around 20,000 participants in mid-2022 to approximately 36,700 by 2042, reflecting a steady annual growth rate of about 2.4%.

• Demand is particularly rising for certain SDA design categories, notably Robust SDA (60% increase in enrolments) and High Physical Support (HPS) SDA (45% increase), indicating shifting participant needs towards more individualized and higher support housing.

• Despite growth in participant numbers, the national SDA utilisation rate remains relatively low at about 42%, suggesting many eligible participants either face barriers to accessing SDA or are unaware of their options.

Supply Status

• The supply of SDA dwellings has increased substantially, with a significant number of new dwellings completed and many more rooms under construction. For example, from December 2023 to June 2024, the market shifted from an undersupply of 2,625 SDA rooms nationally to a slight oversupply of 625 rooms, with over 13,000 additional rooms under construction.

• Supply growth varies by state: New South Wales shows a modest undersupply but with many rooms under construction that may soon lead to oversupply; South Australia has moved from undersupply to a significant oversupply; Tasmania still has an undersupply but with decreasing participant numbers; and Northern Territory shows a decreasing undersupply.

• The SDA supply pipeline is increasingly focused on apartments and houses designed for high physical support, moving away from group homes to more individualized living arrangements.

• There are concerns about oversupply in some markets, especially in outer metropolitan areas, which poses risks for investors due to potential longer vacancy periods and lower returns.

• The vacancy rate for SDA homes is currently quite high, but vacancies tend to be concentrated in inferior designed houses in greenfield estates in outer areas of the big cities, indicating a growing need towards newer, better-designed dwellings in the inner and mid-rings of the major cities and regional towns.

Market Challenges and Opportunities

• The low utilisation rate indicates a gap between supply and actual occupancy, highlighting the need for better participant and provider awareness and access to SDA housing.

• Oversupply in certain regions and SDA design categories requires careful market analysis and strategic investment to avoid further saturation and ensure sustainable occupancy.

• Aging SDA stock that does not meet new compliance standards needs replacement to maintain quality and eligibility for funding.

• Geographic disparities exist, with metropolitan areas generally better supplied than regional or remote areas, where supply gaps remain significant.

• The growing demand and supply imbalance presents investment opportunities, but also calls for cautious due diligence and alignment with participant needs and policy changes.

Summary

In conclusion, the Australian SDA market within the NDIS is expanding with increasing supply and demand, but the balance is delicate. While supply growth is strong, utilisation rates and regional disparities suggest challenges remain in matching SDA housing to participant needs effectively. Investors and providers must navigate these complexities with strategic planning and market insight to capitalize on opportunities and mitigate risks.